This made intuitive sense. Temperatures had been rising across the globe for nearly a century. The more heat and energy there is in the atmosphere, the more turbulent it ought to be. But the climate tends to frustrate expectations. If temperatures at the poles rise more than temperatures at the tropics, for instance, the difference between them will decrease, and the jet stream could slow down. Nevertheless, on average, turbulence seemed to be rising everywhere. The surprise was how much. Between 1958 and 2001, the weather data suggested, clear-air turbulence increased between forty and ninety per cent over Europe and North America. The British atmospheric scientist Paul Williams found similar increases when he looked at data from satellites, weather balloons, and aircraft from 1979 to 2020. If carbon-dioxide emissions continue apace, Williams estimates, moderate or greater clear-air turbulence could rise by as much as a hundred and seventy per cent on flight routes over the North Atlantic by the middle of the century. Turbulence from storms and other sources could also nearly double, a study co-authored by Bob Sharman found.
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